Hello, and welcome to the penultimate CBS Sports HQ PM newsletter of 2022. Yes, that’s right, it’ll soon be 2023, which blows my mind a bit, honestly. Like, how? Where did 2023 come from? It feels like 2022 started not too long ago.
Before I get caught up in the existential dread of coming to terms with the passage of time, I should link these stories for you. You’re going to want to read them. I’ve also got some picks for tonight’s games for you, including an NFL game we’ll remember for the rest of time — no matter how short it might feel.
Now, like sand passing through an hourglass, these are the picks of our night.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Cowboys at Titans, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon
- Key Trend: Ain’t nobody playin for the Titans.
- The Pick: Titans Under 13.5 (-120)
I legitimately fear for Al Michaels having to feign interest in this one for three hours. He’s a man who has built one of the most impressive play-by-play careers in history by calling big games. Let me review the injury report if you haven’t paid much attention to this game.
You already knew the Titans were without Ryan Tannehill because he didn’t play last week. We faded the Titans in this newsletter because there was no reason to trust them as a favorite, with rookie Malik Willis starting. Well, Willis isn’t starting tonight. Josh Dobbs is. Don’t worry; Willis isn’t hurt, the Titans are resting him. Derrick Henry isn’t playing, either.
So the Titans won’t have their top two QBs or the centerpiece of their offense. It’s all because this game means nothing to Tennessee. They can lose by a billion points, but as long as they beat Jacksonville next week, they’ll win the AFC South and clinch a playoff berth because of their record in the division. Isn’t playoff expansion wonderful?
Meanwhile, Dallas needs this win to keep its division hopes alive because they’re 11-4 but don’t play in an absolute joke of a division, so they have to keep winning. Seriously, the NFL has devised a system where a 7-8 team can tank for a week and still make the playoffs, while another 11-4 team has to give everything it has in hopes of winning its division. It’s so stupid. Anyway, bet the Titans team total under.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 13-3 in his last 16 picks involving the Cowboys and he’s put in a play on the spread tonight.
💰The Picks
🏈 College Football
No. 12 Washington vs. No. 20 Texas, 9 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Washington +3 (-110) — Texas is a $200,000 sports car with the engine of your mom’s 2014 Subaru Outback. It’s going to get you where you need to go, but even though it looks like it should go much faster, there’s a concerning vibration throughout the cabin once you start creeping up toward 80 mph.
For whatever reason, the Longhorns are never the sum of their parts and overrated on the market too often. This is another example.
With Doak Walker winner Bijan Robinson and fellow running back Roschon Johnson opting out, the Longhorns will be without their best player and a key contributor. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown is sitting the game out, too. Meanwhile, Washington returns quarterback Michael Penix, and he’s seen as a Heisman candidate for next season. It’s hard to trust the Horns as favorites here.
🏀 College Basketball
San Diego at Saint Mary’s, 9 p.m | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: San Diego +16 (-110) — Saint Mary’s is a team advanced metrics love because it plays outstanding defense and moves at a glacial pace. That reduces variance. Sorry for the nerd talk, but it’s true. While it makes sense mathematically, it sometimes leads to spots we can exploit because, as good as the Gaels are defensively, offensively, they aren’t nearly as reliable.
That’s why we’ve already seen them lose games to teams like Washington, New Mexico and Colorado State this season. I don’t think they’ll lose to San Diego tonight. The Torero have played a weak schedule and are just 7-7, with some bad losses on the resume. This will be their fourth straight game on the road. All that said, the spread is a little too big here. It’s difficult for teams that move as slowly as Saint Mary’s and shoot as poorly from the free throw line (64.4%, 332nd) to cover spreads this large.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Up for some NBA action tonight? The Projection Model can’t believe what it sees in this money line play in tonight’s game between the Raptors and Grizzlies.
