One reason the benching of Derek Carr was so surprising this week is because the Raiders can still make the playoffs. At 6-9, it’s going to take miracle for them to get in, but as we’ve seen over the years, miracles do happen in the NFL.
For the Raiders to make the playoffs, they just need EIGHT things to happen over the final two weeks, and we’re going to cover each of those eight things here.
If you want to make a handy checklist, here’s what the Raiders need to happen in Week 17 and Week 18:
WEEK 17
Is this possible? The Patriots are favored to beat the Dolphins, who almost certainly won’t have Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday. As for the Jets, they have to play in Seattle, where the Seahawks are 16-4 in their past 20 games against AFC teams. The most implausible part of the Week 17 scenario is the Raiders beating the 49ers. The Raiders would have a better chance to win with Carr, but apparently Josh McDaniels has decided to wave the white flag on the season.
WEEK 18
Is this possible? Once again, the least likely scenario is the Raiders winning, especially with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. However, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the other two games go the way the Raiders need them to go.
At the top, we said that eight things need to happen, but we’ve only listed six so far. Here are the other two:
- The Steelers have to lose one of their final two games (Ravens or Browns).
- The Jaguars need to win the AFC South OR lose out to finish 7-10 (If the Jags finish 8-9, but don’t win the AFC South, they’d hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders, so they’d get the wild-card spot. So, yes, just in case you’re wondering, it’s still possible for the AFC South to get two teams into the playoffs).
If all eight of these things happen, the Raiders will make the playoffs with the standings looking like this:
*7. Raiders: 8-9
8. Patriots: 8-9
9. Jets: 8-9
10. Dolphins 8-9
11. Titans: 8-9
12. Steelers: 8-9
At this point, the Titans and Steelers would be out due to their conference record, which leaves us with the three AFC East teams and the Raiders. From there, a tiebreaker would be used to separate the AFC East teams and the Patriots would win that over the Jets and Dolphins. At that point, the Raiders would then get in, thanks to their head-to-head win over the Patriots — you know, the win where New England literally threw the game away.
The crazy thing here is that if all of this happens EXCEPT for the Raiders winning their final two games, then it’s going to be an ugly look for the coaching staff knowing that they gave up on the season so soon.
The Raiders’ decision to bench Carr was almost certainly financially motivated — $40.4 million in his contract would become guaranteed if he got injured over the next two weeks — but it’s still weird to see a team throw in the towel on the season when the playoffs are still a possibility, even if it’s a remote possibility.
